UK Covid Modelling
Firstly, just to say, we are all fine!
We are working from home, and everyone - and their families - are healthy and well.
As part of our approach to testing our simulation skills within the company (and part of a service we provide to outside agencies), we apply multi-object simulation using our FluidFlowEngine tool to everyday concerns, from public health and transport simulation, to predicting the outcome of future sporting events.
Well, dynamic multi-object modelling comes in many forms, and testing your abilities in a real-world context is a key part of what we do.
Here, for example, is our ongoing model of R (the reproductive number of Covid-19) in England, during 2020:
Estimated R in England
The following graph is the result of a real-time R number calculation in England during the coronavirus pandemic.
When R is below 1.0, then the pandemic is under control in England. When R is above 1.0 then the epidemic is spreading.
The latest UK government SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) figure should be available here, so you can make your own assessment as to the accuracy of our model.
The R number in England (according to our FFE model) as of 21 November 2020 is 0.94.
For the last five days that data was available, the R number in England was calculated to be:
17 November 1.10
18 November 1.05
19 November 1.00
20 November 0.96
21 November 0.94 (Results since 4 April 2020 can be downloaded here)
A few pieces of data on record:
The lowest R that England went down to during the summer period of lockdown was 0.64.
The last time England had an R less than 1.0 was on 26 August 2020.
It was clear (with > 95% probability) that the pandemic was accelerating again (the beginning of the second wave) on 4 September 2020.
As you might expect we also model aerosol and droplet transmission, and are involved with a very detailed project comparing closed-room and open, ventilated environments. Those results are provided for academic and Government use, and published separately - but I would recommend, this winter (2020-21), until there is a readily-available vaccine, please open your windows! Your life may depend on it.
If you need any further information, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org